India Braces for Below-Normal Monsoon Season as El Nino Looms.
Skynet Weather, a private forecaster, predicted that India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall between June and September. This comes after four consecutive seasons of above-normal and normal rainfall. The forecaster expects the rainfall to be 94% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm due to an increased chance of El-Nino, which typically brings dry weather.
Understanding Monsoon Season in India
Rainfall between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 88 centimeters for the four-month monsoon season beginning in June is defined as average or normal. The Indian states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh are likely to get less than normal rains during the second half of the season. Unseasonal rains and hailstorms last month damaged ripening crops such as wheat, causing farmers to suffer losses.
Impact on the Indian Economy
Nearly half of India’s farmland depends on the monsoon for crops such as rice. The monsoon is crucial for summer crops as it brings about 70% of India’s annual rainfall. It is one of the mainstays of India’s economy, as it spurs farm produce and improves rural spending, besides impacting inflation, jobs, and industrial demand. Good farm output keeps food inflation under check, and ample harvests raise rural incomes and help inject demand into the economy.
Skynet’s Forecast
Skynet has stated that there is a 40% chance of below-normal (between 90 to 95% of LPA), 25% of normal (between 96 to 104% of LPA), 15% of above-normal (between 105 to 110% of LPA), and 0% chance of excess (over 110% of LPA) rainfall. The forecaster said that the southwest monsoon was above normal and normal for the last four consecutive seasons because of Triple-Dip-La Niña. However, now that La Niña has ended, the likelihood of El Niño is increasing, and its probability to become a dominant category during the monsoon is growing larger. El Niño return may presage a weaker monsoon.
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Factors Influencing the Monsoon Season
Skynet stated that other factors are influencing the monsoon season besides El Niño. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has the potential to steer the monsoon and negate the ill effects of El Niño when sufficiently strong. IOD is neutral now and is leaning to turn moderately positive at the start of the monsoon. El Niño and IOD are likely to be “out of phase” and may lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution.
IMD’s Forecast
In its long-range forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that a transition to El Niño was expected by July-September, with its chances increasing through the fall. There is a 48% chance of El Niño establishing during the June-August season and impacting the monsoon. El Niño is characterized by an unusual warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Its opposite, La Niña, is defined by unusually cooler waters in the same area. The phenomenon together is called the ENSO and has a high correlation with warmer summers and weaker monsoon rains in India.
The monsoon season is crucial for India’s economy, and the forecasted below-normal rainfall is likely to impact the agricultural sector. The IMD is also expected to announce its annual monsoon forecast. The prediction by Skynet may help farmers and policymakers to plan and prepare better for the upcoming monsoon season.
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